Republicans and Family Values

I've written about this in the not-too-distant past, but Andrew Sullivan's piece in the Times prompts me to say a bit more (he also refers to it in his blog). 

The bottom line: Republicans currently in the first tier of candidates (except Mitt Romney) have a real potential for a "family values" problem.  That, of course, is kind of ironic, given that the social conservatives have, of late, supported Republican candidates, AND that they are hesitant about the one "Mr. Clean" in the group because he's a Mormon.

Is it really a problem?  Right now a significant number of Republican voters say they'd vote for Giuliani, even though he's got a "family values problem" a mile wide.  I think, though, that's because of Rudy's natural charisma, post 9/11, and because those Republicans who are really thinking about politics see him as the most likely to beat either Clinton or Obama--and Republicans REALLY don't want to lose the White House, assuming that the tide has turned for a while on Republican fortunes in Congress. A piece of power in a divided government is better than being relegated to complete minority status in a government with the two political branches controlled by one party.

I suspect, though, that as Republican voters get to know the candidates a bit better, some of the luster may wear off of Giuliani, especially if Romney (or Brownback or Huckabee, or the like) starts to show more fundraising prowess and general voter appeal.  It's a lot easier (and appealing, I think) for social conservatives to appear open and magnanimous where questions of faith are concerned, than to appear hypocritical.   Maybe Giuliani can get around it some way, or maybe circumstances will be such that everyone is willing to overlook his flaws.  On the other hand, maybe Romney will be well positioned to shine when the voting actually starts happening.

LLE

Comments

[Psycheout]

I think as the campaign goes on Giuliani and Romney are going to lose some of their current support as real conservatives look to one of their own, perhaps even Sam Browback. At least we hope so!

http://blogs4brownback.wordpress.com/

[adam]

I think that the socons are going to have to pick one of Brownback, Romney, Huckabee or (perhaps) Fred Thompson early on, if their power isn't to be diluted.

[Laura]

Of course "real conservative" is in the eye of the beholder. Different folks define that differently. Since there are social/religious conservatives, fiscal conservatives, small government conservatives, libertarian conservatives, neoconservatives, big government conservatives, etc., I think it's a bit of a problem to suggest that there are "real conservatives" out there, since all of them think that they are the true conservatives. The big question, I think, is whether they can work and play well enough together to actually get another president elected.

[adam]

Small government/libertarian conservatives are, of course, the real conservatives.

[Laura]

You're right, naturally!