RedStateEclectic

You've Got To Be Kidding!

This could be like handing a sharp knife to my 4 year old son.

"Fewer Hours Burning in Hell"

So wishes Savrola of The Daily Burkeman 1 of Rudy Giuliani.  In the weekly roundup of news, Savrola has a few pithy comments about the Republican candidates.  On Romney and Huckabee:

An interesting method of provoking silence among supporters of Governors Romney and Huckabee is to inquire about their candidate's stances on various issues.

On John McCain (and a bit on Fred Thompson):

If Fred Thompson was Bob Dole with a Southern Drawl, John McCain is Bob Dole, just out from the asylum.
He is the most superb straw-candidate since... Bob Dole.

Sen. McCain's campaign slogan is identical to Sen. Dole's.

"It's my turn."

And on Rudy Giuliani:

I'll admit to a grudging respect for the New York Mussolini. He visited Missouri twice, and on both occasions, Ron Paul's loyal supporters out-numbered his own.
I was given to understand that he met similar receptions across the nation.

“Giuliani greets us before he meets his own people,” a Grassroots Coordinator, informed me.
Giuliani was a worthy adversary, so may he spend fewer hours burning in hell.

Be sure to read the rest.

LLE

One Week

Republican candidates for President have one week.  One week to make their best cases to the people--no, the REPUBLICANS--of Florida.  Florida is a closed primary state--the first totally closed primary that's been held so far.  Only Republicans can vote.

Delegates to the National Convention are allocated on the basis of winner-take-all (by Congressional district, and at-large, so it is theoretically possible for a few delegates to go to the person who does not win the state).  Delegates are chosen at the state convention and district caucuses, which are usually held sometime between February and April.  By the rules of the state party, delegates are pledged to the winner of the state for the first 3 ballots of the National convention, unless formally released.

Rudy Giuliani has put just about all of his eggs in the Florida basket.  If he can win there, then he picks up a chunk of delegates, and is suddenly back in the thick of things; if he loses, I suspect that he bails out, given his previously weak showing.

John McCain is (according the to the media), the current "frontrunner"--having won in New Hampshire and in South Carolina (the state which no Republican who went on to win the nomination and the Presidency since 1980 has failed to win).  The question, though, is whether McCain can win in a state where ONLY Republicans can vote for him.  This will be a good sign of the base's willingness to rally around him.

Mitt Romney, who has spent a ton of his own money, would really like a strong showing here, as well (truth be told, everyone would like a strong showing here).  He's actually ahead in the delegate hunt, but there doesn't seem to be any sort of real movement building around him which will help him surge, yet.  A win in Florida might help that.

Mike Huckabee is currently sitting behind McCain, Giuliani, and Romney in the polls in Florida.  He doesn't have a lot of money, and has only won Iowa.  He was hoping for a win from South Carolina, since fellow Southerners should have been friendly to him, but without it, I think his campaign is in trouble.

Fred Thompson, likewise, put a lot of eggs in the South Carolina basket, only to end up a distant third.  Florida could be a battleground for that Southerner, although he's put almost no time into it at this point, and reportedly doesn't have much money in the bank.  My bet: he'll drop out of the race in the next week, and his 7-10% of the vote will scatter, probably to McCain and Huckabee.

Ron Paul isn't going to win Florida.  Too much of the population is dependent on government checks (Social Security) to appreciate his small government message, and his anti-war/anti-interventionism message is too easily simplified into a cut-and-run, isolationism understanding.  He doesn't have time to  get if fully explained.  His best bet in Florida is to spend just enough time and money to keep it respectable.  A showing in the 5-10% range keeps him alive, knocks Fred Thompson out (if he's still in), and sets him up for the next round--if he has the money to stage a big batte in some of the allocated delegate states on Super Tuesday.

LLE

On the Primaries

Colbert on Michigan and Florida:

 

The Real Republican

A nice point is made over on the Ron Paul campaign blog.

Never Good Campaign News

No matter how they spin it, this can't be good for Rudy:

January 11, 2008

Rudy Aides Pass On Paychecks

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. - Senior staffers working for Rudy Giuliani's campaign will go without paychecks in January to conserve money for the Florida fight ahead, NBC/National Journal has learned.

A senior Giuliani campaign aide said some senior staffers had "volunteered" to work for free for the month to conserve resources. Campaigns with financial troubles have at times asked staffers to forego pay to focus resources on advertising and other large expenses. The move is usually a sign of a campaign in financial peril.

The aide said the Giuliani campaign ended December with $7 million cash on hand.

On another campaign finance note, I read somewhere in the last few days (sorry, I can't find it, but if I do, I'll add the link), that John McCain's campaign is still kind of short on funds--they were hoping for a fundraising bump now that he's had some success at the ballot box.  Apparently, he's been running through money at the rate of about $25,000 a day (I remember that number, because I wondered how much a day Ron Paul's campaign was raising these days, and went and checked here ).  If you follow the link, you'll find that Ron Paul is RAISING--since the first of the year, an average of $61,225--PER DAY (that was the number at the time of the writing).  He's raised almost $735,000 since January 1.

If those numbers are true, and John McCain's campaign is spending $25,000 a day, well, gee...seems like there's some potential for something there.

LLE

Ask Rudy Anything...

And the answer is "9-11". This almost cheers me up.

:o)

QUOTE  MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Rudy Giuliani discussed Hillary Clinton’s “emotional moment.” “This is not something I would judge anyone on,” Giuliani said. He then quickly slipped in a reference to 9/11  UNQUOTE

Orwellian Rudy

QUOTE  "Freedom is about authority. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do." UNQUOTE

Obedience is freedom. Authority is liberty. Too much freedom is anarchy to Big Rudy G, latest gangsta rapper out of NYC. Walk his way, and hold your mouth right, or he'll bust a cap in yo' @ss.

From the New York Times.

Rudy Giuliani's Fear-Mongering, War-Mongering Ad

Rudy Giuliani is pretty blatant in his attempt to capitalize on the deaths of the 3,000 Americans killed on September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Old Media Starting to Detect Giuliani's Irrelevancy

TIME magazine is asking if Rudy Giuliani is in a free fall. Is it really that surprising, though? His candidacy was built upon his reputation as "America's Mayor." His constant and unceasing reminders that he was there during 9/11 was a disgusting play on people's emotions. He touts his experience as the authoritarian mayor of New York City as qualifications for the biggest office of them all. But as more people start to scrutinize his policies and beliefs, they realize that Giuliani has built a career out of repudiating Republican ideals.

The initial support for Giuliani was based entirely on his status as a celebrity. Ask any Giuliani supporter why they would support a man who is an anathema to core Republican ideals and their answers would always return to his supposed heroism during one of America's darkest days. This vapidity is in contrast with the answers given by Rep. Ron Paul supporters, where there is substantial and informed knowledge of the issues.

I Have No Comment

I'm not going to make any comments on this story (which I'm quoting in it's entirety below).  What's the first thing that pops into YOUR mind when you read it?  I'll tell you what I thought after others have the chance to express their opinions.

11 Arrested at Giuliani Office

Tuesday, Dec. 18, 2007 By AP

(MANCHESTER, N.H.) — Eleven people were arrested outside Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign office in Manchester (New Hampshire) today, all charged with trespassing.

Police said the group was blocking the door at 1850 Elm Street, which houses the Giuliani office and several businesses.

Officers told group members they would be arrested if they did not move out of the way. They say the protesters said they would not leave, so they were arrested on trespassing charges.

They're Everywhere (Ron Paul People)

Rudy in Kentucky:

 

Now Wife, Then Mistress

Dunlap and Jackie discuss Rudy Giuliani's problems...PG-13 (at least):

What's in Your Wallet? Reader's Challenge

I stumbled on this column  from back in August as I was following links in a comment section of some blog somewhere (not really sure where).  Anyway, it doesn't mention Ron Paul, or Fred Thompson, or some of the other candidates.  So go read it, then come back, and tell me what one of those guys not mentioned would have in THEIR  wallet in the comments section.

LLE

CNN/YouTube Debate Wrap Up

Odds and ends of impressions from the debate this evening.  I imagine some video clips will be up tomorrow.

• John McCain is worried about Ron Paul--most especially, I would guess in New Hampshire and South Carolina.  Both of those are states which have the potential to be friendly to McCain, but they both have the potential to be friendly to Paul, as well.  McCain's rather strident attack on Paul's views on the military suggest, I think that he needs to shore up his position.  I don't think it worked, and suspect that all it did was give Ron Paul an opening to show people how much sense he makes.
• Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney obviously see each other as the primary competitors, and they spent a goodly amount of time attacking each other. 
• Huckabee had a good line or two, and seems amiable enough.  I think he's still running for Vice President--for someone.  His southerness could help balance tickets for either Giuliani or Romney, perhaps.
• Thompson, while he was there, was not really much of a presence, I didn't think.  Seems good natured enough, but something's just missing.
• Hunter and Tancredo ought to just give it up.  They have neither the money, nor the following, to get very far.

Hotline On Call ranked the debate performance this way:

1. Huckabee
2. Giuliani
3. Romney
4. McCain & Paul
5. Thompson

I think that's not too far off.  Thompson almost certainly made the least impression of any of the top 6 (we'll go ahead and exclude Hunter and Tancredo).  I thought that Giuliani and Romney were both off the mark, and that of the "top 3" Huckabee probably made the best impression (even if he spoke the least and said relatively little of substance).  By virtue of time allotted, McCain and Paul probably have to be placed lower than the other 3, although I thought that Paul was probably a little stronger than McCain (although McCain was very good on the issue of waterboarding and torture in a little dialogue with Romney).

It seemed, at times, that there was a deliberate effort to exclude Ron Paul from answering questions that would have been very much up his alley.  The question of Social Security solvency was one that I kept wishing they'd let him answer--and there were several others, as well.  Here's the speaking times that are floating around the Internet:

Giuliani -- 16:38, during 20 times
Romney -- 13:18, during 19 times
Thompson -- 12:16, during 12 times
McCain -- 11:00, during 12 times
Huckabee -- 10:00, during 11 times
Paul -- 7:43, during 9 times
Hunter -- 5:06, during 7 times
Tancredo -- 3:49, during 7 times

It looks to me like allocation of time is based not on seeing to it that there's a fair hearing of each, but rather on who CNN thinks is the best candidate.

LLE

South Carolina Poll Update

And of course it's a little early to count any chickens, but there's more of a hint that something's starting to happen in South Carolina for the Paul and Huckabee campaigns, as well.  In that very crucial state, Paul's numbers look to be on the way up--up to around 6% at this point, and on an upward trajectory.

New Hampshire Poll Update

A new Suffolk Poll in New Hampshire seems to indicate that Ron Paul's base of support in that state is pretty solidly at 8%, while Mike Huckabee's seems to be in the 6-7% range.  Mitt Romney remains in the lead there with polls showing him in the low 30's.  Rudy Giuliani seems to be in the upper teens to low 20s, depending on the poll, and John McCain's numbers are hovering in the mid-teens.  Fred Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire continue to fall--this most recent poll shows him at 2%, although that number could be a bit on the low side; the reliability of it won't be clear until another poll comes out showing those low numbers.

Here's a graphical representation from the last couple of weeks.  Not a lot of movement by anyone, other than Thomspon's (and to a lesser extent McCain's) drop.

What We Were Suspecting

A number of us in the blogosphere have commented on the tepidness of the "supporters" for the frontrunners.  Here comes a report from NBC/National Journal's Matthew Bergerr, who's been on the Giuliani Campaign Bus in New Hampshire.  Money quote (and proof in the pudding):

The crowds, however, don’t seem to have gotten the message. A rally for Giuliani in front of Manchester City Hall garnered only a few dozen supporters. Backers of Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich almost seemed to match them in numbers. Giuliani generates healthy crowds at town hall meetings, but they are not all loyalists. When it comes to rallies and events where partisans are expected in droves, Giuliani’s crowds disappoint. And the mainstream media has started to notice.

LLE

The Real Rudy?

Via James Ostrowski.  Anyone having second thoughts about Rudy's leadership?

 

Giuliani's new TV Ad

Running in early primary states near you.... Probably not a bad ad (I'll admit it, I'm not much of a Giuliani fan, so I'm pretty biased where anything that comes out of his campaign is concerned).