RedStateEclectic

Gary Johnson Ad

Watching CSPAN With the AC On

I’ve avoided it until now.  In spite of having a number of days in the high 80s or even low 90s this spring, I’ve refused to turn on the air conditioning.  But the humidity has just made it too miserable to keep the windows open and the fans running, so I closed all the windows in the house up, and turned on the air conditioning.  And tomorrow, it’s going to be in the 70s again .

CSPAN is currently covering the Libertarian Party convention.  I turned on just at the tail end of Gary Johnson’s speech, and the convention is currently balloting on their presidential ticket.  Much different than the GOP or Democrat conventions.

I’m still steeped in GOP politics here in the state.  A group of us are trying to do some work at getting more young liberty-folks involved in the GOP…but the GOP doesn’t seem to appreciate our efforts…  We haven’t seen outright hostility yet, just hints of disgust for us.  Strange, isn’t it, that the Republican Party wouldn’t want to welcome young folks into the fold—regardless of who they supported for President, Senate, or Mayor?

Speaking of Senate, we’ve got an interesting Senate race here in Nebraska.  The current Attorney General, Jon Bruing; State Senator Deb Fischer; Former Attorney General and current State Treasurer Don Stenberg; and businessman Pat Flynn are all vying for the nomination.  Three against one seem to be the odds, as Flynn was left out of the last debate, and has been left out of major press coverage, in the last couple of weeks.

Flynn is resonating somewhat with Paul supporters in the state, and a number of them are volunteering for his campaign.  Our primary is on May 15th

My next two weeks promise to be exceptionally busy.  I really, really hope that things will slow down soon—although I’m not holding my breath on that—I seem to replace any found gaps in my schedule with new commitments…

LLE

The Guy Who Left the GOP…

…is still running, and running strong.  A recent poll showed him at 6%.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The People Who Like Gary Johnson

Image credit.

Of course, I know Ron Paul (´s credentials and philosophy) a lot better than Gary Johnson ('s). If I faced an either-or-decision, I would support Ron Paul over anyone else - but this does not mean that I am adverse to Johnson.

In fact, there is much to be said for Johnson, not least that he attracts support from people (a) I admire and (b) personally like - (a) and (b) holding true with respect to Laura, (a) applying to the Coyote, who has this to say in his blog, today:

I decided today to volunteer for Gary Johnson’s independent libertarian run for President.  I have always been a Johnson supporter, and was disappointed that he did not get more attention in the debates and nomination process.

Yes, I know folks will be saying that if Gary Johnson does well, it will just be guaranteeing an Obama victory.  You know what?  Given the choices, I don’t care.  My other choices seem to be the guy who pilot-tested Obamacare and Rick Santorum, perhaps the only person the Republicans could have found with a deeper authoritarian streak than Obama.  You know those 2×2 matrices where one leg is “government intervention in social issues” and the other is “government intervention in economic issues?”  Where libertarians are low-low and Republicans and Democrats are each in one of the low-high boxes?  Did you ever wonder who was in the high-high box?  Well, Obama has moved pretty strongly into that space.  But Santorum staked it out years ago.   He is right out of the John McCain, I-am-nominally-for-small-governemnt-but-support-authoritarian-solutions-for-a-range-of-random-issues school.

In fact, I might argue that freedom and small government would be better served by an Obama second term that the yahoos likely to gain the Republic nomination.  First, there is nothing worse than having statism and crony capitalism sold by someone who is nominally pro-market (see either of the Bushes as an example).  Second, Republicans are much feistier about limiting spending and regulation in Congress when in opposition.  They tend to roll over for expansions of state power when they have a fellow Republican in the White House — just compare spending of the Republican Congress under Clinton vs. Bush.  Medicare Part D, anyone?

The source.

While the cold is giving way to thaw here, people in Amsterdam are skating the frozen canals - enjoy, and nite, nite:

 

“Good Government Is Easy”

Gary Johnson is getting better at some of these interviews—you have to wonder whether his debate performance would have gotten better, as well (had he been given the chance).  Now as for the interviewer, I don’t think she was particularly strong.

Why Paul Supporters Should Have Welcomed Gary Johnson

It looks like Gary Johnson is probably going to announce his withdrawal from the GOP nomination race tomorrow, and his entry into the Libertarian Party nomination race. 

From a libertarian perspective, I think that’s a good thing, because I do think it’s important that there be a “liberty voice” speaking throughout the General Election campaign, and I doubt that voice will be a GOP nominated Ron Paul.

Here’s the deal, as I see it:

1) First, take a look at this graph (an updated version, with a few more candidates, of an earlier one):

These are the standings of the current candidates for President in the GOP (RealClearPolitics poll averaging).  Now, it’s clear that Gingrich, Romney, and Paul are the “big dogs”.  But it’s also clear that outside of Iowa, Ron Paul has a lot of ground to gain if he’s to hope for a first place finish in any of the other early states (which is not to say that a first place finish in those states is absolutely necessary to win the nomination—mathematically, we could come up with all sorts of configurations whereby he could be positioned well for the nomination if he were consistently winning strong 2nd place finishes, with Romney and Gingrich alternating for 1st place).  Still, it’s hard to claim a mandate for the heart and soul of the Party if you can’t WIN at least some of those states.

2) Which gets us to the next issue.  One has to assume that Bachmann, Perry, Santorum and Huntsman—if they can’t pull out finishes any higher than 4th place in any of the early states—will end up leaving the game by early February. How many supporters of those candidates will move toward Paul for the next round of primaries?  Maybe a few Huntsman folks, but I’d venture a guess to say that virtually no Santorum folks will move, very few Bachmann and Perry supporters.

3) As the primary field starts to thin, the next step for those remaining is all about positioning to pick up supporters looking for a new candidate.  And I haven’t seen anything (I’m willing to be educated) which would lead me to believe that Ron Paul is exceptionally well positioned to pick up significant supporters from anyone else in the field (with the possible exception of Jon Huntsman, whose foreign policy is closer to Paul’s, and who seems to have some libertarian leanings in some areas).

4) Which is why Ron Paul supporters should have welcomed Gary Johnson’s inclusion in the field with open arms (rather than suggesting that he ought to “wait, and endorse Ron Paul”).  They should have been complaining as loud when Johnson was being excluded from debates as they would have if Paul had been.  Because, to my way of thinking, while Ron Paul and Gary Johnson have a philosophical appeal to many of the same people, they would have had a stylistic/temperamental appeal to different subsets of the Republican population, and had Johnson caught even a hint of fire (even a little bit of smoke) the way that Bachmann or Huntsman or Perry or Santorum have, he might have expanded the liberty base just a bit, and whichever one of the candidates (Paul or Johnson) was at a more credible level for continuation, there would have been a logical “default” position for the “other’s” supporters to go.  As it stands now, it’s hard to see how Ron Paul can get his national numbers above 15%.  What if there were 20-25% of the Republican base that was generally libertarian, but who were just kind of nervous about Ron Paul, but really liked Gary Johnson?

Think about it: Bachmann drops out; does her support go to Ron Paul?  But if Gary Johnson had been given a real opportunity to compete, and hadn’t run into Paul people telling him he should “wait his turn”, he might have built a 5-10% base of his own, which could have been added, almost assuredly—even if as a fallback--nearly in total, to Ron Paul’s numbers if Johnson had withdrawn.  He even said, early on when asked about this, that if it got to the point where the totals that he and Paul had when combined reached 25-30%, that the two of them would need to sit down and talk.

Interestingly, even though Paul campaign supporters have (from my perspective based on my flights through the internets) appeared very much like “it’s Ron Paul, or no one” and “Ron Paul is the only liberty candidate”, Gary Johnson’s campaign—even as he seems to be moving toward a Libertarian run—is focusing on the message of liberty AND the notion that people ought to be supporting BOTH Paul AND Johnson.  Frankly, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a campaign that is so focused on promoting liberty, and not the person.  Johnson’s campaign is a humble, liberty seeking campaign—not necessarily about HIS candidacy, but about spreading liberty.

I suspect that if Ron Paul were to somehow get the GOP nomination, Johnson would back away from a Libertarian Party run.  Indeed, the graphics on his site suggest that he believes that people should support Paul—but that when push comes to shove, if Ron Paul doesn’t get the nomination of the Republican Party, Gary Johnson will be positioned (if he gets the LP nomination), to continue to carry the message into the General Election.

Hung Out To Dry

Gary Johnson talks about being hung out to dry by the GOP, the possibility of running as a Libertarian, and a few other things.

A brokered convention?

The only clear development of the GOP presidential nominating process is that there have been no clear developments. Much like the weather in the Midwest (if you don't like the weather wait 15 minutes and it will change) the leader board in the GOP race for the nomination fluctuates monthly.

I tend to agree with the analysis of Erick Erickson of Redstate that there is Mitt and non-Mitt. Mitt's ceiling lies somewhere in the 25% range. Where you believe the 75% non-Mitt voters will go is impossible to prove. However, Ron Paul's slow and steady burn towards first place and the wild swings in the 'flavor of the month' non-Mitt candidate in Iowa suggests that the 75% is largely in play.

What is becoming a distinct possibility in the process is that well-funded candidates like Paul and Romney and less organized candidates like Perry or Gingrich could carry the nomination through the usual states and Super Tuesday with no one holding a majority of delegates. This would leave candidates to view the nomination process as one of unique process of capturing delegates within different state processes. Politico's story on Ron Paul suggests that his campaign team is already taking this approach.

New rules on delegate assignments with primaries and caucuses also virtually eliminates the possibility of someone wrapping up the nomination early. In order to crack down on the ever-earlier primary and caucuses of states, the national GOP imposed stiff penalties and rules on states that choose to hold their elections before Super Tuesday in March. This means all those states get half of their delegates and that the delegates have to be assigned proportionally - not in a winner take all manner.

If no one has 50%+1 of the delegates going into the convention, then the horse trading will begin. Candidates will offer their delegates in exchange for something (cabinet appointments, vice-presidency, etc.). How such a convention would turn out is anyone's guess. Of course, it is entirely possible that a person would emerge who wasn't even running. (I admit to not being familiar with how the GOP has set up their voting rules except to say that others more in the know see this as a way of having Gov. Christie or Daniels still capturing the nomination).

I believe Ron Paul is the lynchpin in forcing a brokered convention. Clearly, just as in 2008, he will run in each and every state and territory. From Maine to Guam and Alaska to the Virgin Islands. He has an almost unlimited funding apparatus and supporter intensity to challenge anyone all the way to the end even after he has missed any chance of winning. If he acquires a large portion of delegates, let's say 25%, Mitt Romney gets 40%, and Gingrich et al get 35% early on then candidates will be encouraged to linger in the race for as long as they can in order to have a bigger voice at the convention.

Dropping out and endorsing a Romney or Gingrich without being sure which one will capture the nomination might be risky. At a minimum, I think you'll see candidates hang around at least through Super Tuesday since even poor showings would give them something to bargain with. Even 15 delegates might be the difference in putting someone safely over the top heading into the convention and avoid a raucous floor fight.

Imagine the following scenario with completely made up numbers that don't reflect true delegate counts, simply the math of a convention:

Romney:400 delegates, Gingrich:285 delegates, Paul:250 delegates, Perry:40 delegates, Huntsman: 15 delegates, Bachman 10 delegates, Santorum:7 Delegates, Johnson:2 delegates, Roemer:1 delegate.

In this scenario, even if Romney gets the support of every remaining candidate outside of Gingrich (who would have the least reason to deal) he falls short. Even if you fip positions for Romney and Gingrich you get the same result. If we change the delegates to 485 for Romney and 200 for Gingrich you can see how Bachman and Santorum or Huntsman and Roemer could push Romney over the top.

There are obviously hundreds of moving parts and opportunities for people to capitulate and hand over their support and maybe go for that plum ambassadorship to Australia or France. However, it is still a small possibility that the convention could be meaningful for the first time in decades. I tend to think it won't happen because it requires 3 fairly solid candidates (even if maybe the third is a collection of the rest capturing enough delegates to easily prevent a majority). After Michigan's primary in February I think the picture will be much clearer.

Quote of the Day

“Every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle.”

                                  Thomas Jefferson

Sometimes I get in these reflective moods.  Yesterday, I started listening to a podcast that I found called “The Thomas Jefferson Hour” where a historian “plays” Thomas Jefferson, and attempts to answer the questions of an interviewer in character for part of the show, and then talks more about how he thinks Thomas Jefferson would have reacted to certain issues of today.  It’s entertaining and thought provoking, whether it’s accurate or not.

I was struck by the quote above—taken from Jefferson’s First Inaugural Address.  This is something that we’ve more or less come to terms with around our RSE clubhouse—that we all have the same principles in our love for liberty and a desire to get there, even while we oftentimes disagree about how to get there.  And it’s o.k. for us to agree to disagree without being disagreeable.  In fact, we can challenge one another’s opinion, without impugning our motives—which is (I suspect), what Jefferson was getting at.

It seems to me that today’s Jeffersonians--the larger libertarian community-- could benefit greatly by keeping Jefferson’s words in mind.  In the context of the current presidential race, I suspect that Jefferson would believe it good and proper that two libertarian types are competing (along with a lot of non-libertarian types); I suspect that he would think it perfectly acceptable that Ron Paul and Gary Johnson might have a difference of opinion on how best to achieve liberty on some issues; and I suspect that he would be quite pleased that the two of them (if not all of their supporters) have intuitively taken his words to heart, and declined to attack each other.  They know, perhaps, that they share the same principles, even if they disagree on some of the specific or see a different way of moving toward the end goal.

This is one of those strange election years.  I support both Ron Paul and Gary Johnson.  I have a favorite, but I’d be perfectly content were either of them to make the cut.  The principles are the same—I have no doubt of that; the difference is stylistic, and in the means to achieve the principle.

Indecision

Gary Johnson is probably an acquired taste.  But I think if people got the chance to meet him, and find out that these public things are really who he is, they’d learn to like him.

Indecision	An Indecision Exclusive!
Undercision 2012 - Gary Johnson
www.comedycentral.com
Comedy Central Funny Videos Funny TV Shows