RedStateEclectic

Ron Paul's Strategy

What is Ron Paul up to?

This is a question a lot of the fans of the Republican Congressman from Texas have been asking themselves for the last few weeks. The overall strategy of the Ron Paul for President campaign has been difficult to discern in many ways.

For instance, why does it seem like Ron Paul is attacking every other candidate in the race from Perry to Gingrich to Santorum to Huntsman but using kid gloves on the strongest candidate - Romney? Why does Paul not seem to be bothered at the prospects of a third place finish in Iowa or a likely second in New Hampshire? 

I believe the Ron Paul campaign is moving in much the way that the campaign team originally planned when developing its strategy probably some time in early Spring. To understand the campaign strategy I believe it is important to understand how unconventional Dr. Paul's plan is compared to the traditional Republican presidential campaign. It is also important to recall the nature of the 2008 campaigns for the Democratic and to a lesser extent Republican parties.

Reason to Run for President    Ron Paul is not your typical Republican candidate running for president. In fact, I'm not sure any candidate of any prominence recently has run not be president as much as a way to promote a message. Presidential campaigns are a way to bringing new ideas to the party's grassroots. This is probably a clumsy way of accomplishing this goal, but for someone as far out of the mainstream of his party and leadership as Paul is, it is really the only way to express his views on foreign and monetary policies.

This singular motive completely changes your strategy for waging a presidential campaign and, I think, explains the unusual nature of the Paul campaign. It fundamentally alters how you approach debates, advertisements, and campaigning within states. It is also completely different from the traditional Republican campaigns where one looks to score some early decisive wins, show an ability to raise money, and then finish off your rivals on Super Tuesday.

It's about Ideas, not the Office   If your goal is to change the way the party and the country look at issues then your focus is on more than the short term goals of a presidential campaign. Clearly, it would be best for your promotion to win the nomination but a realistic view of the electorate - especially the Republican electorate - would show that Paul's ideas are out of the mainstream. They are growing in prominence (just look at his showing at the Iowa Caucuses from 2008 to 2012 with over 100% growth) but they are at most a large minority within the party probably no more than 25%.

Assets in Place   Despite what many inside the media perceived, Ron Paul had massive assets coming into the campaign. To outsiders, Paul was seen to have a few rabid fans and a large donor base who were small contributors. What they missed was the Campaign for Liberty. 

Launched in 2008, the Campaign for Liberty was a way to keep Ron Paul supporters from 2008 engaged with the Congressman's activities and help promote his views within Congress. This was best exemplified with the push and eventual passage of the Federal Reserve Audit in both the House and Senate. But more importantly, the Campaign for Liberty provided the superstructure for converts to Paul's crusade to network with each other and plan... for 2012.

Although not affiliated with any official Ron Paul campaign, the Campaign for Liberty was the resting home for all of Paul's campaign apparatus which he would need in a 2012 bid for president. Not surprisingly, a strong emphasis was placed on building up the Iowa and New Hampshire Campaign for Liberty teams and successfully getting friendly people put in place within the local and state GOPs. For instance, unofficially, the Paul camp had achieved securing over half of the county GOP chairs or leaders and many on the state's central committee in Iowa.

Most important to realize is that the Campaign for Liberty is a truly national organization with its reach in every state. This means that Paul has de facto campaign bases in each and every state making him competitive on a national scale - not just early primary and caucus states.

An Unorthodox Approach   Because of his unique assets and his even more unusual goals, Rep. Ron Paul, I believe, is engaged in a very unorthodox presidential campaign. He recognizes that although his message is very popular and growing within a section of the electorate - it is by no means a majority position. His plan then is to wage a long drawn out process that relies more on looking towards delegate acquisition than on outright victory - perhaps even winning a single state.

Clearly, winning all the delegates in a state is a goal and will very likely be accomplished in many of the caucus states where Paul's organization and zealous supporters will have the most impact. Winner-take-all primary states are the least desirable for a campaign like Paul's where they feel their message will be viewed in a hostile manner by a majority of the GOP base who receive much of their information from the establishment and its mouthpieces like Levin, Savage, Hannity, and Limbaugh.

The established portions of the party will resist Paul's forces and will probably succeed in many of the caucus states, especially as it becomes more obvious what Rep. Paul is up to. Overall, the primary focus is gaining delegates to gain prominence going into the convention. 

The Not-Romney Candidate   What is becoming increasingly clear, is that the Paul campaign is looking to become what has been termed the "Not-Romney" candidate. Tea Partiers, and the Republican base is definitely disappointed with Romney as their nominee. National polls have shown him to struggle breaking above 30%. Romney represents the liberal East Coast establishment candidate similar to John McCain (who although from Arizona was the epitome of a big government squishy Republican).

The Paul campaign recognized early on that the only candidate that would compete long term was Romney. Therefore, they looked to eliminate the 'chaff' in order to become the de facto 'Not-Romney' candidate. The sooner they can take down the other candidates, the better as it allows them to accumulate a larger share of the delegates. 

The Other Not-Romney Candidates  A quick look at the other candidates trying to make the race a two man race shows how Paul's strategy has been working perfectly. Cain is out. Bachmann is out. Huntsman looks increasingly like a one state wonder who will drop out soon. Perry is limping into NH polling at 1% and around 5% in SC. His future is dim. Gingrich can potentially last a few more weeks but with little funding his earned media will dwindle and he will possibly last a few more states through Florida but he is not on the ballot in his home state and has no funding to compete in a national super Tuesday contest.

That brings us to Santorum who has no funding or organization and will attempt to use his social conservative credentials to sell himself in the South. He will be target number one from the Paul campaign as he is the one who could potentially carve into their delegate count on Super Tuesday if he is still viable - especially if his funding picks up and he is able to run more television spots in Florida and beyond.

I believe the Paul campaign is looking to make the race a two man race as soon as possible. This is probably their schedule:

SC: Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Perry    LA/WV/FL: Romney, Gingrich, Santorum    WI/NV: Romney, Gingrich/Santorum    NV/ME: Romney, Gingrich/Santorum

Since the other candidates by this point will have lost nearly every contest to Romney their funding and ambition will have dried up and they will be unable to push on to Super Tuesday. Only Paul will remain as the alternative. Obviously, they will endorse Romney to get a plum cabinet spot and Paul will be all that's left.

From there, Paul and his forces will be an enormous thorn in the side of Romney unless he cuts Paul a deal. Whether that is a prime speaking spot at the convention, a VP slot for Rand, a cabinet position, or some other combination. Romney is a man who deals and will want to save his resources and shift his campaign's focus against Obama as soon as possible. This strategy, although not a 'winning one' is one that will have a lasting legacy and impact within the Republican party.

A template for Drew Wellrock

The Ron Paul Newsletters are once again at the forefront of a Ron Paul campaign. I hate to write about them because they are just so stupid. Dumb, mean things written in a style that is very much unlike Ron Paul. I don't profess to be a confidant to Rep. Paul but I have spent a few hours with him and his brothers at a family reunion and never once detected any sort of racism or mean bone in any of their bodies.

I am almost certain that those newsletters were not written by Ron Paul. He is culpable (to quite an extent) with the fact that he invested in something that had his name on it without much oversight. This post, however, it to the mysterious writer we will call Drew Wellrock, who was responsible for the content in those newsletters. The writing is similar to your style of writing even today on your website. It is time to fall on the sword of your own making if you care anything at all for your friend and former boss, Ron Paul. You have profited mightily thanks to his name and association and it is time to pay him back with the respect that he has and continues to give you now.

This is how I imagine the letter should go:

I have known Representative Ron Paul for decades. I worked for him, have travelled with him, and spent countless hours over the years with him. I can attest with absolute certainty that Ron Paul is not a racist. He is the penultimate gentleman and as wholesome an individual as one could hope to meet and know. He served his patients and constituents with respect and compassion without any consideration of social status, race, or ethnicity.

After Ron Paul retired from Congress and returned to medicine, I approached him with a business venture where I and some associates would write articles regarding conservative topics. The newsletters would go out to his mailing list of supporters and he would earn a little bit of money and keep some contact with those supporters if he ever chose to run for Congress again.

Mostly the letters were typical boiler plate railings against the establishment, people who looked to strip away gun rights, and the political correctness crowd and their insistence on turning a blind eye to all racial conflict. I never included a byline because I felt this would diminish the appeal of the newsletter and effectively hurt my bottom line.

I sent Ron Paul the first few newsletters to review. They were more tame then the ones I authored after a few years. Ron really never expressed much of an interest in the newsletters feeling that he was affording his name to help out my career and business. He trusted me completely with the writing and publishing. And I failed him.

I failed him in writing things that were so out of character with Ron without asking his permission. I saw that the more incendiary the prose, the more newsletters we sold. I was writing almost entirely to push sales and without regard to much of what I was writing. I stopped consulting with Ron outside of sending the small royalties which he generously refused and insisted that I use towards an educational foundation promoting freedom and austrian economics (now the von Mises Institute).

My biggest failure was to not admit my role in the newsletters when Ron ran for Congress again in 1996. Had I admitted my shortcomings then, the issue would not have resurfaced in 2001 and 2008. Fortunately, the issue never gained the prominence it has during this election. I am very proud of my friend Ron. He had many opportunities to tell all the world that the writer was most likely me. He chose friendship and loyalty over convenience which makes him the rarest kind of friend. And my role a colossal failure.

I took advantage of Ron and his name, profited off of it, and launched a career thanks in part to his kindness and loyalty. Of that, I am the most ashamed. I apologize to Ron for what I wrote and my pride that has prevented me from admitting my guilt. I hope that he will forgive me but can rest easier now knowing that he will now be able to spread his message of liberty, and freedom to millions of Americans during this campaign.

Sincerely,

Drew Wellrock

Jerry Doyle at LPAC

Part II & III here.

The Southern Avenger’s Latest

“The Tea Party does not have a foreign policy per se, but it does have a domestic policy—as it continues to learn that “making the world safe for democracy” is not only impractical and impossible, but also racks up a pretty large bill.”

A Good Speech By Jack Hunter

Alabama C4L Tornado Relief Fund

The tragedy in Tuscaloosa proper is being well covered by the media and is getting much of the assistance being provided.  With this in mind, the Campaign for Liberty will concentrate in other areas of Alabama such as Elmore County, Pratt City, Pleasant Grove, and northern areas of the state that are less known but no less needy.
We have canvassed the affected areas and spoken to victims and rescuers alike.  This is what they told us:
    “We need personal care items, clothing, and baby items such as diapers.”
    “We are without power and need generators and gasoline to help keep the generators running.”
    “We need batteries since we are without power and won’t have it for a while.”
    “We need gasoline to keep cleanup machinery running.”
The most effective way to get the victims the help they need is to donate to our Tornado Relief Fund.  We purchase the goods locally and deliver them to the victims directly, or in some cases, through partnership with local relief groups.

Please help if you can.

The Napkin Amendment

Have you ever wondered how laws get passed in the prestigious US House of Representatives? Well, here's an example from March 10th taken from the facebook page of my congressman, Justin Amash. Apparently, this scrawl was submitted minutes before a vote as an amendment and was the only version available for members to see.

Of course, nearly all of them voted without ever having seen it. It passed 278-147. Here's the roll call vote. And in the numerous pithy comments in Amash's facebook heading is one from a Bobby Cox which reads: Justin, how about on the next bill you scribble in "1 day after the passage of this bill the Federal Reserve shall be abolished."

With the level of vigilance most members seem to show that idea might actually work.

The Southern Avenger’s Website is Up and Running

Southern Avenger

Thanks to Angela for the heads up.

CPAC 2011: Ron Paul's Achilles Heel

I hesitated in writing this but it is something that must be said. First, for those who may be dropping by for the first time, let me give you a little history as to who I am and why I think I have some credibility in stating that one of Ron Paul's biggest liabilities going into a 2012 presidential run (which all signs point towards him doing) are his supporters.

I began following Congressman Paul in February of 2007 after randomly watching a floor speech on CSPAN (I almost never watch CSPAN but turned it on for some odd reason that day - fortuitous I guess). I liked what I heard and then would read and watch anything I could find online about him during the exploratory phase of his campaign.

I found out that my assistant pastor was Ron Paul's brother which tied me to the family in a way and I was charged with keeping him up to date with all things Ron Paul during the campaign (he only had dial-up.) I have met Ron Paul personally at least 4 times with one time for a couple hours at a family reunion here in Michigan.

I worked tirelessly on the campaign in 2007/08 where I was one of the original meet-up members, my wife and I maxed out to his campaign, and all of the people who worked with me were very aware of my preference for president. I got involved in the local GOP and have been so ever since. I have served on the county executive committee and I ran for the state house (partly because Ron Paul casually asked me at the reunion when I was going to run for office some day.) I can say that Ron Paul and his family (I've never met Rand) are a wonderful, godly, industrious, and caring folks. 

Needless to say, I consider myself to be a legitimate voice among Ron Paul supporters when I offer this observation of CPAC last week. I still support him and any other voices who call for liberty whether that is Gary Johnson, Rand Paul, Justin Amash, etc. The more voices the better in my opinion because the more salesmen the more likely you will find a sales pitch that works for different people.

So Ron Paul's achilles heel in beginning this presidential run are his supporters. Well, not all of them, a small but extremely vocal and raucous minority. Most of the Ron Paul supporters at CPAC were subdued (except when Paul spoke) if not well dressed (lots were students and I remember those days). But there was a fairly prominent segment of his supporters who were really annoying. They booed people, heckled speakers and supporters, and basically acted like jerks. Frankly, they were embarrassing to be anywhere near.

Listen, I get it. The mainstream media treated Ron Paul terribly (still is, of course) and most establishment Republicans scorned his viewpoints. The fact that he was right about a lot like the financial collapse just made establishment Republicans more mad. But acting like jackasses and ruining events is only going to antagonize and turn people off to Ron Paul. 

We no longer have to act crazy to get attention. He raised money, has an extensive organization through C4L and even statewide in Iowa, and he gets lots of love in the media [Don't believe me? How many times has Duncan Hunter, Tommy Thompson, Rudy Guiliani, Fred Thompson, Tom Tancredo been interviewed since the election? My guess combined Paul still outnumbers them 5:1.]

The behavior of some of those Paul fans on CPAC simply made people mad. What's the point of booing Dick Cheney? Why heckle Rumsfeld? Sure you have a right to do that, but you reflect poorly on the guy you're trying to convince the mainstream that is legitimate. It merely accomplishes the opposite of the point of any conference like CPAC - to gain support.

You can be enthusiastic and chant "Ron Paul' and cheer and talk about how great his stances are. But don't do so by attacking someone or scaring them. It's foolish, ineffective, and ultimately detrimental. 

Unless those Ron Paul fans learn some self restraint and how to interact with establishment and casual Republicans, his campaign will quickly hit a ceiling. He will never climb out of the 'fringe' category with most Republican voters which is absolutely essential if we ever hope for him to gain the nomination.

Like Laura stated a few days ago in her piece about how things will go, I too can imagine Paul followers acting in one of few ways during a second campaign. I only hope it is with decorum and attracting the bees with honey - not vinegar. Let's debate ideas and not antics.

CPAC 2011: A Strange but Fun Journey

When my wife and I decided to attend CPAC back in December I was very hesitant. I suppose I was concerned with three things: who I would meet, what I would hear, and how much it would cost. When I found out that my congressman, Justin Amash, would be speaking at Saturday's RLC national convention I decided to make the trek to DC to at least lend him support (which he doesn't really need). I can honestly say that the extended weekend trip exceeded my expectations and had a lot of unplanned twists and turns. 

It began right after our arrival at Baltimore/Washington International Airport. Our plan on Thursday night was to take the Amtrak train from BWI to Union Station and then the metro to our hotel. However, since neither of us had ever been to BWI and it wasn't entirely clear where the shuttle bus pickup to the Amtrak station was we waited and hoped for the best outside the terminal.

While waiting I saw a young man and his girlfriend and I was pretty sure I had seen him before. Since I was on my way to CPAC it came to me that he was some sort of conservative comedian whom I had seen doing a video on the horrors of Detroit. I told my wife, "He's some kind of famous guy. I can't remember his name. I think it's Steven. This must be the right bus."

Well, it turns out that even famous guys get on the wrong bus sometimes because the four of us ended up taking a tour through BWI's historic long term parking lot. He politely apologized for misleading us when he realized that we sort of vaguely were following their lead. We introduced ourselves (he was Steven Crowder, former PJTV now Fox News Contributor) and then went to catch the proper shuttle. After I ran down the shuttle, we got to the Amtrak station and found that the train was very delayed. Steven asked us if we'd like to share a cab to our hotels and he quickly negotiated with the cab driver a very cheap rate. His New York experience with cabs was in full display to this country bumpkin. Needless to say, it was a fun ride into Washington with a couple of great people and a wonderful way to start off our trip.

Friday we attended CPAC and saw a couple speeches in the morning including Gov. Fortuno of Puerto Rico (most impressive) and former Gov. Gary Johnson. We stuck around for Rep. Tim Price but his speech turned out to be sort of boring so we struck out to visit our congressman, Amash, in his new office. After visiting for a little while and Marcy giving him some suggestions on where to hang the pictures in his office that had just arrived, we headed over to the Capitol to watch voting on the House floor. We took the tunnels from the House office building to the Capitol (which I recommend traveling in if you ever have the chance) and watched the House convene and vote on a few items.

Realizing that the afternoon speakers like Pawlenty, Paul, Perry, and Cain were coming up we decided to cut out a little early and try and find our way back to Amash's office where we had left our stuff. As we were walking in the tunnels, much to our surprise, Ron Paul came out of a side door all alone with one staffer right in front of us. We shook hands, said how it was nice to see each other again and sent along a 'hello' from his brother David, who is our retired assistant pastor. He asked us if we were going to see the speech and we said that's where we were headed and looked forward to it.

After collecting our things we headed into the metro and back to the conference at 2 PM. We got in line and waited and waited and waited. The line to get in the main ballroom was long and slow moving. There were tons of Campaign for LIberty people. Only a certain amount of people were allowed in the hall (fire codes I suppose) and it seemed as if people were not interested in getting up and leaving. First, we missed Pawlenty at 3 PM and then we were 6 people short of getting in the door when Ron Paul took the stage. Right as he began, they let 10 people in (including us!) to stand on the stairs so we saw almost the entire speech. 

Once Paul finished, the room cleared out significantly and we found some nice seats to watch Perry's and Cain's speeches. Cain's we had to leave a little early since we had early dinner reservations and we skipped lunch and were really hungry. Later that evening, we went to the YAL event where Jack Hunter, Mike Church, and some other guy from The American Conservative were on a panel before Congressman Amash came on. Amash had a nice message and took questions from the mostly teenage crowd. I quipped to our friend who was in the front of the room that we were sitting back in the senior citizen section.

Saturday was spent going to the RLC convention, hearing our dear Laura Ebke speak on a panel, and catching Justin Amash again speak during lunch. We left in the afternoon and walked around on the national mall which neither of us had been to in 15-20 years. While walking around (actually trying to get to the Jefferson Memorial) we stumbled upon the Holocaust Museum and decided to go in. It is even more impressive and powerful than I imagined. Definitely a must see (without young children) if you visit DC. Walking through there and seeing the history, pictures, and stories, makes it hard to imagine what happened and how that could ever happen...

The evening was a return to the RLC again with Peter Schiff and then Governor Gary Johnson. Johnson gave the same speech but longer this time. It was fun to once again meet him and I can confidently say that he is a very genuine and friendly person. No arrogance or phoniness about the guy - he is very relaxed in his own skin and seems truly motivated to run to do the job not fill the office.

(This was taken at a Michigan RLC event about one year ago when Johnson began "making the rounds".)

*As an aside, I agree entirely with Laura's feelings upon meeting one another. It was as if we had known each other for a long time and were just friends catching up who hadn't seen each other in a while. Very odd, yet very cool. The only surprise and thing I didn't expect was Laura's Nebraska accent which I'm sure she'll deny she has.

My next posts will be about my impressions and what I think the implications of the events at CPAC concerning Paul/Johnson/Romney/etc. might be.