After last night’s Iowa caucuses, it appears that the GOP nomination race is going to get smaller.
Michele Bachmann, who had put a lot of time and effort into her Iowa strategy, came in 6th place (beating out only Jon Huntsman, who opted out of Iowa). Absent some sort of surprise, it looks like she’s going to leave the race today, given that she had canceled campaign appearances in South Carolina, and has a press conference later this morning in Iowa. I suppose it’s possible that she’s got something else in mind, but as a native Iowan and current member of Congress from neighboring Minnesota (not to mention “values” candidate), she needed to do better in Iowa.
Likewise, Rick Perry appears to be considering a departure, as he returns to Texas for “prayer and reflection” as he considers “whether there is a path forward” for him to the nomination this year.
Jon Huntsman has put all of his eggs in the New Hampshire basket, where he is doing reasonably well in the latest polls—although one has to wonder how much of a bump he could get out of a “no-place” showing in Iowa, followed by a 3rd or lower place showing in New Hampshire. He needs to finish 1st or a strong 2nd in New Hampshire, in my opinion, in order to have any momentum moving into South Carolina.
South Carolina and Florida look likely to be the “make it or break it” for Newt Gingrich’s campaign. Falling into 4th in the Iowa caucus, and 5th place in the most recent New Hampshire poll, Gingrich needs South Carolina to stage a comeback. South Carolina has a much better reputation for selecting the ultimate nominee of the Republican Party that either Iowa or New Hampshire (probably because those other two states do a lot of the culling of candidates), so I’d expect a big push there. Gingrich should have the resources to stage a big fight there, and though they’re almost 3 weeks old, polls in both South Carolina and Florida were showing him in a strong position, so he’d have something to build on.
Which brings us to the three who definitely lived to fight another day: Romney, Santorum and Paul:
- Romney’s “victory” (by something like 8 votes across the state of Iowa) was tenuous. It points to the notion that even among the establishment types, there is a certain “not Romney” sentiment.
- Santorum’s de facto “victory” (coming from WAY behind to nearly “win”). He’s at the top of the “not Romney” and “not Ron Paul” pile right now. Based on the e-mails that have come into my inbox in the last 10-12 hours, it looks like he’s trying to capitalize on his showing in Iowa for fundraising (and renting lists from everyone from tea party groups to National Review conservatives), asking for “URGENT” contributions of “at least $35”. Most accounts suggest his campaign has been operating on a shoestring budget. He’ll need an infusion of cash and a healthy showing in New Hampshire (where he hasn’t spent much time) if he is to move into South Carolina and have any hope of staying alive in the battle of the establishment titans (Romney and Gingrich).
- Ron Paul. Well, my Twitter feed suggests a certain disappointment by supporters. Paul supporters really hoped for a “stick it to the man” first place finish. Of course we don’t really know how well organized the Paul folks were—the actual delegate count, after the Paul folks move through the convention system in Iowa, could be much higher than his strong 3rd place finish would suggest. Still, I fear the results demonstrate a certain “cap” on Ron Paul support at this time. The highest polling numbers he’s seen anywhere, anytime (except in his congressional races), were in Iowa. His poll numbers in New Hampshire (next Tuesday) have topped in the high teens, and his nationwide numbers tend to be in the low-to-mid teens. Is there a possibility of him getting the nomination? Well, sure, I suppose so. But it’s hard to see how from where I sit. As I’ve mentioned before, he would have to reap the benefits of some of the “drop-outs”—but beyond the infinitesimal Gary Johnson support in New Hampshire, it’s hard to see where that support might come from (well, maybe some from Huntsman if he exits, but he’s really a non-consideration beyond New Hampshire at this point).
Nevertheless, while some people (including some people who I consider friends here in Nebraska) consider Ron Paul “bats**t crazy”, his presence in the race—win or lose—has the potential for value, if his supporters will learn to play the game, rather than just picking up their balls and leaving when they get struck out. In a Twitter conversation with a friend last night, he suggested that Ron Paul’s supporters would follow any of the candidates (presumably Santorum, Gingrich or Romney) who would “co-opt” (his words) Ron Paul’s fiscal message on sound money and the Federal Reserve. I begged to differ, because I thought that painted Paul supporters as shallow and unprincipled.
The Republican establishment assumes that if “someone else” (the eventual nominee) were to take on a couple of Paul’s key issues, that Paul supporters will support the Republican candidate over Barack Obama in the General Election. That attitude shows both a thoughtful realization that the Paul supporters are important to the end game, and a delusion which suggests that the Paul folks aren’t “different” and can be bought off (in a manner of speaking) by just whispering “sweet nothings” into their ears. Paul supporters—crude though they may be at times (my Twitter feeds last night were full of “f” bombs)—are really quite discerning, and won’t be easily convinced by “Johnny-come-latelys” to the fiscal discipline/constitutionalism show.
My friend asked whether Paul people would really vote for Obama or stay home, when Ron Paul didn’t get the nomination, even if the GOP candidate “co-opted” some of Paul’s issues. My response (paraphrased): “Darned right—or they’ll vote 3rd Party.” At that point, he said (direct quote): “Sad. That would leave the Republican party with no choice but marginalization.”
To which I kind of chuckled, and pointed out that the Ron Paul folks have largely been marginalized already (in spite of trying to work within the Party) for the last 4 years. Why should we expect anything different?
EDIT: As I published this, this came across in my reader:
“Here’s the deal,” Palin told Fox Business Network’s Neil Cavuto. “The GOP would be so remiss to marginalize Ron Paul and his supporters as we come out of Iowa tonight and move down the road to New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, et cetera. If we marginalize these supporters who have been touched by Ron Paul and what he believed in over these years, well, then, through a third party run of Ron Paul’s or the Democrats capturing those independents and these libertarians who supported what Ron Paul’s been talking about, well, then the GOP is going to lose. And then there will be no light at the end of the tunnel.”
“So, the worst thing that the GOP machine can do is marginalize Ron Paul and his supporters,” she added.
Palin said that while she disagrees with Paul on foreign policy, the Texas Republican “does have good ideas when it comes to the austerity measures that domestically we must engage in in order to be secure, in order to be solvent as a nation.”
“The supporters of Ron Paul, they hear that. They have been touched by that,” she said.
UPDATE 2: Bachmann is out for sure. Twitter feeds suggest that Perry is in through South Carolina, anyway—which may make it tougher for Gingrich and Santorum to lay claim to the “not Mitt Romney” establishment vote.
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