Mostly economic since that's what I'm been paying attention to. The politics appear to more normalization and less revolution and revolt. Washington is again going to restrict range of debate.
1. Uncertainty rises and it is harder and harder to make accurate predictions as crisis hits wave after wave. Volatility reaches a post-great-depression high.
2. We see another Wikileaks blockbuster. It once again undermines US government policy and it is once again marginalized by the US government and the US media. We see some regime-friendly "copy-cats." They are talked up, but largely irrelevant.
3. Commodity prices go sideways for a while as people invest in the equity markets instead of commodities. Base metals demand flags for a while. Then commodity prices rapidly grow again.
4. A few small cities declare bankruptcy. We see several municipalities fail to provide essential services. Several small public pensions go into default. This is the new misery index.
5. China falls into stagflation and its government desperately tries to prop up the real estate prices. Housing prices reaches its peak in July.
6. Portugal goes on the verge of default and is bailed out again. China puts in a token effort.
7. Dollar loses hold completely in the Asian markets. Asia gets repriced in Yuan, but people realize Yuan isn't much better.
8. S&P goes up 30% and then down 30%. Mania first takes hold as inflation is confused as recovery. Mid-year, there is confusion as commodity prices rise sharply and rising costs takes down the "recovery."
9. In October, China's stock market crashes 40%. Real estate prices crash 60%, and China's bank are effectively bankrupt.
10. China's Central Bankers make a visit all over the world and tries to get everyone to renew inflation.
11. At year's end US 10-year notes yield 4.9%.
I probably misses a few crisises somewhere in there.