RedStateEclectic

MI Predictions for 2010

1. The government will continue to grow in 2010. Federal pay and benefits will expand in their 'lucrativeness' when compared to the private sector.

2. State and local governments will begin proposing massive tax increases, millages, etc to protect a crumbling civil employee infrastructure from disintegrating. A bailout for the states and municipalities will pass by mid year to help pay teachers' and emergency responders' salaries.

3. Rand Paul will roll through the primary in Kentucky and the general election. Mainstream Republicans will continue to board the train as they recognize the burgeoning Tea Party movement.

4. To that end, Republicans are going to begin throwing around the term "Constitutional" all over the place despite having misplaced it decades ago. 

5. Republicans, through no fault of their own, will increase their hold in the Michigan Senate and come dangerously close to taking the State House. The Governor's race will be won by the GOP by 5-10 points. A runaway.

6. On the federal level the GOP will nearly retake the House and close out their gap in the Senate.

7. The liberty movement within the GOP will shift to include more than Ron Paul as Rand Paul and others begin to add new voices to the debate.

8. Peter Schiff comes in 3rd in the Connecticut GOP senate primary.

9. The 'economic recovery' will look to take hold in the first quarter only to vaporize and a new malaise setting in by early April.

10. The Lions will be eliminated from the playoff hunt before the end of 2010.

A Few New Year's Eve Thoughts From James

Thank goodness this decade is ending!

If it had been a YouTube channel it would be Fail Blog.

If it had been a movie, it would have been written and directed by M. Night Shyamalan, and would have starred Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez.

Looking back on this decade it is appropriate to thank our glorious politicians everywhere that stepped up to the noble task of imitating Vince the ShamWow guy in every way and at every opportunity.

I think when historians examine the first decade of the 21st century they will conclude that about the only things that didn’t come crashing down were the Moon and Nancy Pelosi’s face.

This new year and decade ahead HAVE to be better. I mean it’s like being the next act to follow an impromptu performance by Kanye West at Lilith Fair.

I'm just sayin'.

Happy New Year

A bit of a tradition here with this one, I think.

Sleep my child and peace attend thee,
All through the night...

Happy New Year, Al!

No Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Fraction in Past 160 Years, New Research Finds

No Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Fraction in Past 160 Years, New Research Finds ScienceDaily (Dec. 31, 2009) — Most of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity does not remain in the atmosphere, but is instead absorbed by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. In fact, only about 45 percent of emitted carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere.

However, some studies have suggested that the ability of oceans and plants to absorb carbon dioxide recently may have begun to decline and that the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is therefore beginning to increase.

Many climate models also assume that the airborne fraction will increase. Because understanding of the airborne fraction of carbon dioxide is important for predicting future climate change, it is essential to have accurate knowledge of whether that fraction is changing or will change as emissions increase.

To assess whether the airborne fraction is indeed increasing, Wolfgang Knorr of the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol reanalyzed available atmospheric carbon dioxide and emissions data since 1850 and considers the uncertainties in the data.

In contradiction to some recent studies, he finds that the airborne fraction of carbon dioxide has not increased either during the past 150 years or during the most recent five decades.

The research is published in Geophysical Research Letters.

Oh dear, Al.  2010 may not be a banner year for you.

2010 Predictions

O.K.  I’ve finally decided to jump out on a limb and make some predictions…so, for what they’re worth, here’s an assortment:

1. The University of Nebraska Cornhuskers won their Holiday Bowl game last night in grand fashion—33-0 against an Arizona defense that was one of the best (but not as good as ours’) in the country.  First time in Holiday Bowl history that there’s been a shutout.  I predict that in 2010, the Cornhuskers will begin their pre-season rated in the top 10 in the country, will win the Big 12 Championship, and will play in a BCS bowl—perhaps even for the top spot (but that wouldn’t happen until after the beginning of 2011, so I won’t predict the outcome just yet).
2. Texas will beat Alabama in the Rose Bowl on January 7, resulting in bragging rights for Nebraska, who lost to Texas in the Big 12 Championship game, literally, by 1 second.
3. Although I’m not a climatologist, the winter of 2009-2010 will be one for the record books in much of the United States.  Here in Nebraska, we’ll have snow on the ground until at least early March, and will have at least one more major storm in January or February.  And more and more, we’ll be asking “so what’s that about global warming?”
4. On the political front:
• Rand Paul will win the Republican nomination for Senate in Kentucky, forcing “regular Republicans” to decide whether to support him and maintain their caucus size, or let him run on own, and risk losing what should be a sure Republican seat to a Democrat.
• Barack Obama and the Congressional Democrats will continue to try to take our liberties away, but will be battled by Republicans in Congress (for largely partisan reasons), and by Tea Partiers, C4Lers, 9/12ers and the like (for an assortment of reasons—some partisan, some sincere anger).  With the exception of health care—which will end up with “something”—although perhaps nothing quite as bad as the Pelosi/Reid crowd wanted, little of significance will be dealt with next year, as Democrats try to soften their radical image in anticipation of the midterm elections. 
• It won’t work, though, because more Americans are waking up to what’s happening, and memories are growing longer.  Harry Reid may very well lose his Senate seat; the Senate Democrats will lose their super-majority, although may hold on to a slight edge.  Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected because of the nature of her district; Republicans will pick up a lot of seats, maybe even enough to re-take control of the House, but certainly enough to make it a lot tougher for the Dems to get their way with things in 2011.
• More of our liberties will be destroyed as the Obama Administration reacts to terrorist threats in ways that have little to do with stopping terrorists, but much to do with making people FEEL like they’re doing something to stop terrorists.
5. For those who have jobs, purchasing power will decrease, and hidden taxes will go up, resulting in more people in financial difficulty.

Here’s wishing all of my collaborators and all of our readers, though, a very Happy—and prosperous—New Year!

LLE

Chicken-Owning Pickle Wanter Seeks Pickle-Owning Chicken Wanter

Walter Block breaks down the wonders of trade:

Barney's Bank Bailout Bill

Congressman Frank is really being friendly to the big banks with his massive bill, H.R. (Homeland Rip-off) 4173; better known as the financial reform bill. See, every dolt in the country has this whole "economic downturn" thingy pegged, right? We all know that the bankers and private markets were to blame so it stands to reason that we should shove through a 1,300 page tome unreadable by the citizenry to make everything right as rain (just like the politicians continually promise will happen... soon).

If you want to know what's going on these days, one of the better places to turn is Bloomberg's website. And so it happens that one of their gents decided to read Barney Frank's bill and r, in doing so, truly earned his living. Now, one would think that there would be plenty of issues with a piece of legislation which dwarfs the constitution which, for clarity's sake, was only about four pages long. One would be right. 1,300 pages means you're hiding a whole bunch of special interest crap within the covers.

For the sake of brevity, I'll list these juicy morsels in bullet form:

• authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes.
• allows the government, in a crisis, to back financial firms’ debts.
• creates a council of regulators to spot risks to the financial system and big financial firms.
• can restrict the ability of a financial firm to trade for its own account.
• allows regulators to “prohibit any incentive-based payment arrangement.”
• kills the Office of Thrift Supervision, a toothless watchdog. Well, kill may be too strong a word. That agency and its employees will be folded into the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Further proof that government never really disappears.
• calls for more than a dozen agencies to create a position called “Director of Minority and Women Inclusion.” People in these new posts will be presidential appointees.

Now you know why Mr. Frank is chairman the financial services committee. He can produce the most pork, with a side order of moral hazard thrown in for good measure.

Only 12 Hours

Don’t forget, it’s time for our annual prognostications!  What do you think will be happening in 2010?  RSE authors can write their own posts; readers should feel free to comment to this or any of the related posts with their own attempts at being a modern day Nostradamus. 

Misleading Aggregates - The Workhorse of the Collectivist

Misleading aggregates are a propagandistic compulsion of the cancerous state. From Keynes to Mann (of global warming note), it turns out that misleading aggregates greatly appeal to the majority who like to think that they understand a complex situation as well as their leaders, while neither have a clue.

Relative to the noise surrounding them, how important are concepts and measurements of global temperature? How much more important are local conditions?

Over here it feels like spring is just around the corner.

How are we doing in Nebraska?

 

Coyote writes:

The information problem is one that Hayek is famous for addressing.  In short, there is simply too much to know to make decisions for the entire economy.  In fact, folks with high IQ’s often do especially poorly in this context, because they tend to overestimate their own knowledge and problem-solving ability. 

The source.

In fact, if epistemic challenges are complex, let views compete, let them take the form of contestable propositions, keep them open to refutation and improved reformulation - but never rule ex cathedra - which is the way of politics.

See also Socrates - Understanding Understanding.

Looming Showdown

Reason has a nice discussion (don’t forget to read the comments) of Michael Barone’s latest column in the Washington Examiner.

The essence of both pieces: we are headed toward a showdown between those who work in the private sector, and those who work in the public (i.e. “government”) sector.  From Barone’s piece:

It looks like a happy new year for you -- if you're a public employee.

That's the takeaway from a recent Rasmussen poll that shows that 46 percent of government employees say the economy is getting better while just 31 percent say it's getting worse. In contrast, 32 percent of those with private-sector jobs say the economy is getting better, while 49 percent it is getting worse.

Nearly half, 44 percent, of government employees rate their personal finances as good or excellent. Only 33 percent of private-sector employees do.

It sounds like public- and private-sector employees are looking at different Americas. And they are.

Private-sector employment peaked at 115.8 million in December 2007, when the recession officially began. It was down to 108.5 million last November. That's a 6 percent decline.

Public-sector employment peaked at 22.6 million in August 2008. It fell a bit in 2009, then has rebounded back to 22.5 million in November. That's less than a 1 percent decline.

This is not an accident; it is the result of deliberate public policy. About one-third of the $787 billion stimulus package passed in February 2009 was directed at state and local governments, which have been facing declining revenues and are, mostly, required to balance their budgets.

The policy aim, Democrats say, was to maintain public services and aid. The political aim, although Democrats don't say so, was to maintain public-sector jobs -- and the flow of union dues to the public employees unions that represent almost 40 percent of public-sector workers.

And from Gillespie at Reason:

There is a looming showdown in American society between public-sector employees and the rest of us, in terms of job security and, especially, unsustainable gold-plated retirement and health benefits that are working hard to bankrupt whole states such as California, New York, and New Jersey. As with some parts of the private sector (domestically owned auto companies, for instance), basic compensation packages were hammered into place in a very different America, and conferred massive future benefits when politicians were either too stupid or too cowardly to confront basic questions of fiscal responsibility. Do you want to spend your life (and have your kids spend their lives) to pay ever-increasing taxes for teacher, cop, and bureaucrat retirements at early ages? Especially while you're expected to fully fund your own? This is a social contract that needs to be redrawn ASAP.

I’ll admit to being pretty ticked off right now.  My husband’s last paystub of the year just came in the mail—I did the math: in withholding taxes alone this year, 30% of his income went to the government.  Doesn’t sound like much, you say?  We ought to be grateful it’s not more? Well, I suppose (although I’m pretty sure that next year it will be more).  But this doesn’t even begin to include the taxes we pay—property taxes on our home, sales taxes on everything we buy, gas taxes, and an assortment of other hidden taxes that I’m sure I don’t know about.  And then, to add insult to injury, the government sponsored monopoly that is the Post Office: I just went downtown to mail a package (to the IRS, of all places, but that’s a side story), and found a sign on the window  which read “This Window Closed from 11-12 for lunch”.  Surely, there are more than two people working at the post office in my town (I’ve been in there before and seen several near the window at different times), and they could actually provide a service by alternating their lunches and keeping the window open!

Gillespie may be right—there may be a showdown coming—those who produce vs. those who get paid for telling us why we’re not producing enough.