Ron Paul Backers - Beware the Explain-away

I'm pretty sure that Ron Paul will exceed many people's expectations in Iowa today. (Heck, to think of him placing anything but last when he entered the race in February seemed the subject of fantasy.) I just want to remind Ron Paul supporters that the explain-away for his finish will be coming tonight and will persist throughout the period between now and the NH primary.

Here are the explanations - and why they are wrong (at least partially).

1) His finish is the result of rigging the caucus or flooding them with non-Republicans or worse, Democrats. This may be valid to some extent but I think part of his appeal is that he brings people who would not ordinarily be labeled conservative into the Republican tent. Without question, his campaign has changed the views of a lot of Democrats who realize that the Constitution is important and you can't pick and choose where to ignore it. 'Cause guess what? You might not be in charge the next time and 'their' guy will pick and choose the parts you don't like. And if you think Democrats would caucus with Republicans to 'mess with them' is just wrongheaded. Not only would they risk getting someone they really dislike, they have a very competitive race. So if they caucus Republican, they must really be as desperate for change as a great many disgruntled Republicans.

2) He brought in tons of non Iowans to caucus for him. Although this is possible because of the registration rules in Iowa - I would expect that an impact such as this one could not in any way 'tip' the election. There is no real way to gauge how many people would choose to do something like this but I imagine the numbers are pretty small compared to the 80,000+ caucus goers.

3) Iowa is a small state that is anti-war and receptive to his message - that is not the case for the rest of the country. I'm sure we'll see this one but it's not really valid since most of the country does not support the war in Iraq and Republicans who are polled are even split 40-60 against the war.

4) Iowans are just simple country folk who are easily fooled. Why do they get to be first? They're not as sophisticated as us in ___! Hardly worth addressing but will be a commonly seen slander on the blogs (already out there now) when certain supporters' candidates tank in Iowa. I lived in Iowa for 8 years and although they may not be wearing the latest cosmopolitan fashions, they are like everyone else and stay up on politics probably more than other places. (I will qualify that by saying that I heard my wife's grandfather describe the manure aroma as "the smell of money". Farmers. Go figure.)

The real question for Ron Paul is will his finish in any way give him second looks in New Hampshire? I suspect that media attention will still be hard to come by no matter how he places (barring a win) because of the explain-aways. I really think his chances are better in Iowa than NH due to the different voting systems. But what do I know? I have been categorically wrong on every prediction with the campaign. ("They'll never let him in the debates." "Now they'll keep him out for sure after those comments." "$1million? Impossible." "The money bomb will never work." "The blimp will never get off the ground." "$12 for the final quarter - talk about setting exepctations too high. That's impossible.")