Can Ron Paul Win?

 Before the Kansas City event that we attended on June 15th (and which writers to this blog chronicled here, and here, and here.), I mentioned to my father that we were going to go down to KC (he considered going for a while, but the demands of a legal practice wouldn't let him get away), and he mentioned the forthcoming trip to my 85 year old grandfather (a still-practicing veterinarian here in Nebraska), whose comment, apparently, was "who the hell is Ron Paul?"  (I gave my grandfather a Ron Paul for President baseball cap for Fathers' Day).

Anyway, there has been a part of me, that much as I love Ron Paul and his message, required a certain realism.  I've been trying to come up with an example of a major party political candidate who was not only so far behind in early polling, but also so far philosophically from where the party establishment seems to be, who was able to capture the nomination of his party (the precursor, of course, to winning the general election).  I haven't come up with any good examples recently--Clinton was a somewhat obscure governor in 1992--as was Carter in 1976--but neither were really significantly outside of the Democratic organizational mainstream, and neither were saying anything that would likely earn them the vitriol of "the establishment."  On the Democratic side, there are no examples that I'm aware of in the last half century of a candidate winning the nomination who had been viewed as completely unacceptable to the leadership.

On the Republican side, by the time Reagan was elected, his views had largely taken over the party, and those nominated since him have either won nomination by reason of it being "their turn" (Bush I, Dole), or because they said the right things and kissed up to the establishment (Bush II, Bush I, Dole).  Pre-Reagan, Nixon was the quintessential "establishment candidate."  The last candidate who even comes close to Ron Paul's status is Barry Goldwater in 1964--but even he, though considered outside of the "establishment" of the Republican party at the time (and even though his views in the early 60s could have been written by Ron Paul today), was "Republican enough" to draw in conservative Republican support.

So, Ron Paul has a high hill to climb to the nomination, but the question is, could he win the nomination?  Two months ago, I probably would have said "no"--he doesn't have the name recognition, the money, the organization, and so on, required to beat the powerhouses of RudyMcRomneyson.  Today, I'm starting to see things a little differently.

I've been to the rallies, and I've seen the excitement and the diversity.  I've wondered, though, whether these are just people caught up temporarily in the excitement of the moment, who aren't in it for the long haul, and who will drop out the first time something bad happens.

But then, as a newly added member of the Ron Paul Meet Up organizers e-mailings this week, those fears have been quelled.  Yes, there are people out there who have some rather outrageous ideas.  But, there are also people who are learning quickly--they're figuring out what they need to do in different states, they're registering Republican (probably a painful process for some of them), and they are able to mobilize armies of e-mail, blog and in-person support within hours, if not minutes.

Witness the two greatest examples of disrespect to Dr. Paul (thus far) in the campaign: the proposed exclusion of him from further debates (suggested by the Michigan GOP Chair), and the exclusion of him from the "forum" in Iowa next week.  In the first case, the Michigan chair backed off real fast, after being inundated with phone calls and e-mails within hours of his suggested exclusion.  The Iowa officials, likewise, have apparently received a number of phone calls and e-mails. 

While--as of this writing--the Iowa folks don't seem to be backing down, there is talk of perhaps THOUSANDS of Ron Paul supporters around the country driving to DesMoines for next Saturday's "forum"--with rumors that a "big announcement" is going to be coming from Ron Paul headquarters today.  I'll speculate (based on a comment that Dr. Paul made in a radio interview to the effect that maybe 'we'll have bigger attendance at a rally of our own") that perhaps an organized Ron Paul rally is going to happen, and that Dr. Paul will put in an appearance.

Can Ron Paul win?  I think he can.  If he does, it will be in spite of the mainstream media, and against the wishes of the establishment Republicans, but I see signs all over that people are doing the things they need to do to build a really good "on-the-ground" campaign; Ron Paul's message plays well to those who hear it; and the more the establishment tries to keep him away, and the more the anti-establishment pushes back, the more notice he'll get in the mainstream press.  Ron Paul's campaign is rolling--if it rolls fast enough, he could be well positioned to grab some delegates in New Hampshire and Iowa in January--and then we'll watch how fast the campaign can really move.

LLE