SC After Action Report
After letting the GOP debate last night percolate in my brain overnight, I think I'm now ready to provide a little more thoughtful response to the event. Probably the easiest way to do that is by candidate, so here goes--in alphabetical order.
- Sam Brownback: Brownback's performance was o.k. He neither distinguished nor extinguished his candidacy. He reaffirmed his social conservatism, but I haven't felt like he's shown a depth or commitment to some of the other issues.
- Jim Gilmore: The former RNC Chair and former Virginia Governor performed more strongly than in the previous debate. His castigation of the three frontrunners for their lack of conservative principles by referring to them as "Rudy McRomney" drew some attention (and laughs), and he was certainly on the offensive in his criticism of those three, as well as Huckabee. I suspect that his stock may have gone up a bit.
- Rudy Giuliani: Giuliani had some good lines, and probably scored some "tough guy" points when he took Ron Paul on regarding the cause of 9/11 (more on that later). Other than that moment, I'm not sure that he scored a lot of points in terms of new substance, but I don't think he lost points out of this debate.
- Mike Huckabee: The guy seems a little too much like a pastor to me (maybe because he is an ordained Baptist minister?). That's not necessarily a bad thing, and could certainly win him points with some of the social conservatives. He scored some points with his "spending money like John Edwards in a beauty parlor" line, I think. Generally, I'd give him an "up arrow" for this performance. He's probably increased his value as a potential running mate for someone else.
- Duncan Hunter: The guy has been a staunch conservative on security issues, and is strong on issues of border control. I thought his repeated assertions that he "built the border fence" in California got a little old, and sounded kind of funny. I imagine what he was talking about was legislation which required the building, and not that he was out there with a post hole digger stretching the chain link himself. He looked o.k., but I don't think he moved himself much out of the bottom tier.
- John McCain: John McCain was a mixed bag. He had some weak moments, I thought, as when he used that same "Congress is spending money like a drunken sailor" line yet again. I know the message folks believe you've got to keep repeating those things, but it seems like that's become a little too rote for him. He also had some strong moments--moments when he distinguished himself from the rest of the crowd. He was adament in his opposition to torture, which include by his reckoning, "enhanced interrogation techniques" which some assert are not technically torture. McCain spoke with a sense of authority and authenticity on the issue that none of the other candidates could approach, and spoke against torture in a way that none of the other candidates (save Ron Paul) did. I'm not sure whether McCain gains ground with last night's performance, but I don't think he loses any.
- Ron Paul: The good Dr. Paul is a tough one for me to evaluate, in large part because I really like the guy. That being said, I'll be the first to admit that he's not particularly "slick" in his answers, and doesn't have the television persona that some of the other candidates do. Some others (like Rojas and Brad) are virtually sounding "taps" for Paul's candidacy at this point. Still, after watching the debate a second time, and watching the whole Rudy-Ron flap a couple of times, I tend to agree more with Andrew Sullivan's assessment of that incident here and here. The flow of the debate--and maybe Giuliani--distorted what Ron Paul actually said about 9/11's cause: he did NOT say that we asked for it, or that we were "responsible" for it, as a Rosie O'Donnell might say; rather, he suggested that our policies of interventionism over a number of years had spawned resentment for us, which then gave birth to the hatred of the extremists. That makes perfect sense, and at some level explains every war since the beginning of time. He was solid on taxation and spending, as usual. More on him in my conclusion.
- Mitt Romney: Romney was, as many, o.k. There was nothing that I saw that made him stand apart from the crowd, but he didn't hurt himself, either, I don't think. He looked and sounded good, and while he didn't really flip-flop, he did sort of engage in political double talk at times.
- Tom Tancredo: Tancredo strikes me as a bright enough guy, passionate about a few subject, but not really up to the national stage.
- Tommy Thompson: The one thing that I and Rojas agree on about this debate is that watching Thompson is almost painful. Nice guy, he was a really good governor for Wisconsin and an adequate Secretary of HHS--he has neither the charisma nor the convictions to make it to Oval Office
Conclusions:
McCain, Giuliani, and Romney did nothing, I don't think, to knock themselves out of the top tier. McCain may have helped himself marginally with his steadfast denunciation of torture as an appropriate tool of war. Giuliani helped himself briefly with his attack on Ron Paul, although I wonder whether there won't be some "blowback" on that one: Rudy has a reputation for being something of a hot head, anyway--that clip could just enhance that notion. Romney still needs to have a breakaway moment, and it's just not happening.
As to the second tier, I think Tommy Thompson and Tom Tancredo ought to just give it up altogether. Thompson's too old to be looking at a VP bid, and Tancredo just doesn't seem to be of national caliber. Likewise, I'm not really sure Brownback is ready for the Presidency, and I'm not sure that he's got anything that would make him distinct from other potential running mates. I actually think the best place for him at this time is to concentrate his time on being an effective U.S. Senator, rather than running for President.
Duncan Hunter has announced that he will retire from the House at the end of this term. That being the case, if he can afford to keep running, I think he keeps some security issues--especially border security--on the table for discussion, which I don't think is a bad thing, although I think his movement beyond the lower second tier is unlikely. Mike Huckabee and Jim Gilmore acquitted themselves adequately, with the edge for good humor to Huckabee, and the edge for aggressiveness to Gilmore.
That leaves Ron Paul. I think it's possible that after the dust settles on the Giuliani-Paul flap, that Paul will come out with a higher public standing; I don't really think he hurt himself as much as some of the pundits have suggested, and the simple attention may do him some good. The mainstream media, of course, has great fun mocking Dr. Paul, probably because of his previous run as the Libertarian candidate and because his steadfast defense of liberty seems so simple; Sean Hannity and Alan Colmes were both thrown into fits by him last night after the debate (that, in itself, is a reason to keep supporting him). He is probably the best read candidate on the stage on a whole range of issues, but my experience is that some of the best and brightest are not also the ones who are the slickest when it comes to expressing themselves.
Do I think Ron Paul will be our next President (or even the Republican nominee)? Short of a miracle, no. Still, Paul's message has a uniqueness about it that I think some people are anxious to hear. Even if he doesn't have the charisma to ultimately win the nomination or be the President (which is a sad commentary on the state of our political life these days), if he could somehow start showing in the Republican polls, even in the upper single digits, by the end of the summer, I think he could have an impact on the race, and on the direction that the GOP tracks this election cycle.
As Brad from The Crossed Pond pointed out at one point, if Paul could be the GOP's Howard Dean this election cycle, he could have an immense impact on the direction that the party goes. All that's not to say that's what WILL happen, but it COULD happen--if the liberty message resonates.
LLE
